Gabon shifts allegiance: France’s declining influence amid rising China and Russia appeal

Rising disapproval of France’s role in Gabon has reached historic levels. A recent Afrobarometer survey reveals that 78% of respondents view Paris’s influence as detrimental, while only 20% hold favorable opinions. This sharp contrast positions France at the bottom of the rankings among foreign actors in Libreville, despite Gabon’s long-standing status as a key Francophone stronghold in the Gulf of Guinea.

The disparity is even more striking when compared to other global partners. China leads with 61% positive perceptions, followed closely by the African Union (60%), the United States (47%), and Russia (43%). Essentially, Beijing is now seen by Gabonese citizens as three times more legitimate than Paris. This reversed hierarchy underscores a profound shift in diplomatic perceptions in a country where France’s economic and military presence once seemed unshakable.

Distrust mirrors a regional trend

The Gabonese shift is not an isolated incident. Since French forces withdrew from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, opposition to Paris’s influence has spread across West and Central Africa. Chad requested revisions to its defense agreements in late 2024, Senegal secured the closure of French military bases, and Côte d’Ivoire followed suit. Gabon, now under military transition led by Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema since August 2023, aligns with this broader movement of reassessing inherited partnerships.

Symbolically, the gradual withdrawal of French military bases across the continent—including the downsizing of French elements in Gabon to a cooperation mission—has paralleled this transformation. Libreville’s official rhetoric, emphasizing sovereignty and diversified partnerships, resonates with a public weary of perceived asymmetrical relations.

China fills the narrative void

China’s inroads in Gabon extend beyond financial investments or infrastructure projects. Its rise is rooted in a non-confrontational approach, avoiding political demands while delivering tangible results: roads, hospitals, and telecommunications networks. The demand for Gabonese manganese, a critical resource for Beijing, reinforces this transactional relationship, which many citizens find more straightforward than the complexities of Franco-Gabonese ties.

Russia, with 43% favorable opinions, benefits from an anti-Western narrative amplified by social media. Despite limited economic engagement compared to China or France, Moscow gains traction among digitally connected urban youth through a sovereigntist discourse. The African Union’s 60% approval rating further highlights that continental multilateralism retains strong legitimacy, despite Gabon’s suspension following the 2023 coup.

A strategic wake-up call for France

These findings serve as a strategic warning for French diplomacy. Gabon remains a vital economic hub for France, with major interests in manganese (Eramet), hydrocarbons (TotalEnergies), and banking/logistics sectors. The erosion of France’s image could weaken its position as public tenders undergo reassessment by the transitional authorities.

Structural grievances—such as debates over the CFA franc, restitution of cultural artifacts, and post-independence interventions—fuel deep-seated resentment that mere public relations efforts cannot resolve. The Afrobarometer data suggests that reclaiming favorable public opinion will require a fundamental overhaul of France’s diplomatic framework, not superficial adjustments.

The upcoming political transition in Gabon, culminating in presidential elections and a return to constitutional order, could reshape alliances anew. The next government will face a critical choice: maintaining economic continuity, responding to popular demands for change, or embracing alternative partnerships with China, the U.S., or Russia.