Guinea-Bissau’s military leadership is pressing ahead with a sweeping disarmament drive across the capital, Bissau, just weeks before a presidential election that was meant to close the book on military rule. The operation has turned a security question into the defining political dilemma of the transition: can a vote billed as the return to civilian power be credible while the man it removed from office is kept out of the country?
Weapons searches sweep the capital
Security forces have been combing through several districts of Bissau, inspecting shipping containers and private homes in a hunt for hidden weapons and ammunition. The stated aim is to strip armed groups of the means to destabilise the capital.
Military authorities say they want to bring under control any weapons circulating outside official channels. The campaign is unfolding in a country where the army has for decades sat at the heart of political crises, and where coups have repeatedly cut short democratic processes.
According to available information, some of the weapons being sought are attributed to elements linked to former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló. It is a politically explosive accusation, and one that would need to be backed by concrete evidence establishing exactly where the weapons came from and who was holding them.
Embaló insists he will run
Behind the security operation looms a major political deadline: the presidential election set for 6 December 2026. After the coup that toppled him in November 2025, Umaro Sissoco Embaló has been living in exile in Morocco.
The former president has nevertheless made clear he intends to return to Guinea-Bissau and seek the highest office again. In late September he declared he would be a candidate in the presidential race.
His homecoming had initially been expected on 4 October. But the military hierarchy decided to block it. The junta says the security conditions required for his return are not in place, citing the need to protect public order and social stability.
Embaló, for his part, is holding firm to his intention to take part in the vote and is demanding that his candidacy be examined by the judicial authorities impartially and independently.
A candidacy that unsettles the military transition
The standoff between the former president and the new authorities is no longer confined to whether he can set foot back in the country. It could now play out directly on the electoral battlefield.
The junta has pledged to hold elections aimed at restoring civilian rule. The presidential and legislative votes are officially scheduled for 6 December.
But the Embaló case leaves the military facing a delicate equation: how do you organise an election meant to mark the end of the transition while preventing the former president, ousted by the coup, from returning to campaign?
For now, the authorities have officially justified his ban on returning on security grounds. It would therefore be premature to describe his candidacy as having been legally rejected by the junta. What is clear, however, is that his physical return is blocked by the military authorities, which seriously undermines his ability to run a ground campaign.
Weapons as much a political issue as a security one
It is against this backdrop that the seizures take on an added dimension. By hunting for weapons that may be tied to networks close to the former regime, the junta says it wants to head off any threat to public safety.
Yet the operations are happening at the precise moment when political rivalry over the presidential election is intensifying. The question, then, is whether the disarmament is purely a security measure or whether it will also shift the political balance of power before the vote.
Military authorities will have to show that the searches and seizures rest on transparent procedures and are not being used to sideline political opponents.
A transition under close scrutiny
In August, the junta pushed through a new constitution following a referendum strongly contested by part of the opposition and civil society. The new text notably strengthens presidential powers.
In this climate, the 6 December presidential election is a crucial moment for the country’s institutional future. A possible return by Embaló, his candidacy and the conditions under which other contenders can campaign will all be watched closely.
In Bissau, the soldiers keep searching, seizing and disarming. But behind the inspected containers and the weapons being sought, a broader battle is taking shape: the fight over who controls the transition and under what terms Guinea-Bissau returns — or fails to return — to civilian rule.
With two months to go before the vote, the tug-of-war between the junta and Umaro Sissoco Embaló is only just beginning.
