Tchad economic stability boosted by S&P rating upgrade

Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has reaffirmed Chad’s sovereign credit rating at ‘B-’ with a stable outlook, validating the country’s economic strategy outlined in the ‘Tchad Connexion 2030’ National Development Plan. The announcement highlights renewed confidence in the nation’s economic trajectory, driven by strong growth, controlled debt levels, and sustained international support, as confirmed by the Ministry of Finance and Economic Planning.

Growth projections revised upward: from 3.6% to 5.2%

Chad’s economic recovery, which began in 2023, has gained momentum thanks to rising hydrocarbon prices and a rebound in services. In 2025, the country’s real GDP growth is projected at 5% by S&P—up from its December 2024 forecast of 3.6% for the 2024–2027 period. This upward revision reflects the nation’s robust economic performance.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also adjusted its growth outlook for Chad to 5.2% for the current year, underscoring the economy’s resilience. While the oil sector remains a key driver—contributing significantly to exports and public revenue—agriculture and services are increasingly bolstering domestic demand. Improved agricultural output and the recovery of non-oil sectors have diversified growth, reducing reliance on a single industry.

Debt levels remain sustainable

Chad has made significant strides in managing its public debt, transitioning from a period of high vulnerability to a more stable fiscal position. The country’s debt-to-GDP ratio is now estimated at around 36%, a moderate level compared to regional peers. In 2022, Chad became the first nation globally to utilize the G20 Common Framework for restructuring its external debt, reducing its foreign debt to half of the total and securing largely concessional terms.

This restructuring has restored financial flexibility, enhanced the country’s debt profile, and unlocked funding for key initiatives under the ‘Tchad Connexion 2030’ plan. The government continues to prioritize fiscal discipline, ensuring debt sustainability while freeing up resources for social spending and critical infrastructure projects.

Revenue mobilization gains momentum

A key pillar of Chad’s economic reforms is the improvement in domestic revenue collection. The tax-to-GDP ratio, though still below optimal levels, has risen from 9.8% in 2022 to 13.1% in 2023, according to OECD data. This reflects efforts to broaden the tax base and enhance revenue administration.

In 2025, non-oil revenues have exceeded projections, supported by a thriving non-hydrocarbon economy and measures implemented under the IMF program approved in July 2025 (totaling $625.3 million). The digitalization of public finances and strengthened governance have further boosted collection efficiency. These advancements reinforce Chad’s financial credibility, making it more attractive to private investors and international partners.

«The S&P rating upgrade,» the Ministry of Finance noted, «solidifies Chad’s financial credibility and serves as a powerful catalyst for attracting private investment while reinforcing confidence in the government’s reform agenda.»

‘Tchad Connexion 2030’ unlocks new economic opportunities

The S&P rating confirmation underscores the progress Chad has made—but challenges remain. Key priorities include economic diversification, further revenue mobilization, and maintaining sustainable debt levels. Infrastructure development, particularly in energy, water, and transportation, is also critical to unlocking long-term growth.

The ‘Tchad Connexion 2030’ National Development Plan, adopted in May 2025, aligns with these goals. It follows Chad’s political transition, which concluded with the election of President Mahamat Idriss Déby Itno in 2024, the adoption of a new Constitution, and a national reconciliation dialogue. The plan aims to lift 2.6 million people out of poverty by 2030 through a projected 8% annual GDP growth, which would expand the economy by 60% over the period.

Funded by $20.5 billion in commitments secured in Abu Dhabi in November 2025, the plan encompasses 268 cross-cutting projects organized under four strategic pillars:

• Accelerating infrastructure development: electricity, water, roads, and telecommunications.
• Enhancing social policies: education, healthcare, vocational training, youth employment, and social inclusion.
• Diversifying the economy: expanding export-oriented sectors in agriculture, livestock, fisheries, hydrocarbons, mining, and tourism, with a focus on local value addition.
• Improving the business environment: streamlining administrative procedures to attract investment.