Senegal’s political power struggle: navigating a new institutional landscape

Having jointly spearheaded the transformative agenda of the Pastef party (African Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics, and Fraternity) since its ascent to power in March 2024, Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Ousmane Sonko now find themselves locked in a political standoff, fundamentally reconfiguring Senegal’s institutional equilibrium. Sonko’s removal from the Prime Minister’s office, his subsequent return to the National Assembly, and his election as its leader, mark an unprecedented chapter in Senegalese politics.

This unfolding situation pits a president, vested with significant constitutional prerogatives, against a political leader widely acclaimed by his party and commanding a substantial parliamentary majority. Political analyst Abdou Fattah Niane offers an insightful examination of the strategic levers available to both figures and the pivotal factors poised to influence the evolving power dynamic in the country.

---

The Diomaye-Sonko crisis: insights into Senegal’s power dynamics

Indeed, it is appropriate to characterize the current situation as a crisis, particularly given that it involves the President of the Republic and his former Prime Minister, who has since become the President of the National Assembly.

The ongoing Senegal political crisis between Diomaye and Sonko highlights inherent challenges in the exercise of power. Historically, the Senegalese model, apart from the immediate post-independence years (1960-1962), operated as a presidential system where the ruling party also held a majority in the National Assembly, ensuring a dominant executive. However, the current reality points to an effective cohabitation.

Nevertheless, drawing definitive conclusions at this stage would be premature, as events continue to unfold rapidly. We can, however, reflect on what this Senegal political crisis has revealed thus far, acknowledging that further developments are inevitable. This period serves as a crucial test for the resilience of the Senegalese political system and its inherent capacity to navigate periods of instability. It is precisely during such moments of crisis that this capacity for adaptation and endurance truly comes to the fore.

Like any significant political transition, this situation offers an opportunity to assess the robustness and adaptability of Senegal’s political framework. Can the system genuinely accommodate a divided power at its highest echelons? Or is it more predisposed to a strong, centralized authority extending across both executive and legislative branches, as has been the norm since 1963? Only time will tell. Regardless, a measured approach in the exercise of power appears to be a vital safeguard for political stability.

Is the current Senegal political crisis a continuation of past rivalries or a true rupture?

From a national perspective, I believe this represents a significant departure. Since 1960, the only comparable crisis that posed a threat to institutional stability occurred in 1962, involving President Léopold Sédar Senghor and his then-Prime Minister, Mamadou Dia.

To fully grasp the current dynamics, it’s essential to recall certain contextual elements. The President of the Republic wields substantial constitutional powers, responsible for defining the nation’s policy, which the Prime Minister is then tasked with executing. However, during the election that propelled Bassirou Diomaye Faye to power, Ousmane Sonko notably selected him as the candidate and subsequently provided decisive support.

The prevailing situation stems from the convergence of two distinct sources of legitimacy. On one side stands the legal legitimacy of the president, endowed with significant constitutional authority. On the other is the political legitimacy of a leader who effectively controls the party apparatus and enjoys a substantial popular base. The results of the legislative elections on November 17, 2024, vividly illustrate this. Upcoming local elections, slated for January 2027, are expected to serve as a crucial regulatory mechanism within this already contentious cohabitation process.

What are the respective power bases for Faye and Sonko in Senegal today?

Political parties inherently strive to provide tangible benefits to their members, while, conversely, dedicated members are vital for the functioning of partisan organizations. From this vantage point, both political figures can leverage expertise while actively working to consolidate their electoral support.

Ousmane Sonko’s primary support base is the PASTEF-Les Patriotes party, which unanimously elected him president (with 589 voting delegates) during its congress on June 6, 2026. Furthermore, he commands a robust parliamentary majority (130 out of 165 deputies), granting him significant constitutional powers, including oversight of governmental actions, evaluation of public policies, and the ability to initiate motions of no confidence.

Bassirou Diomaye Faye, while holding substantial constitutional powers as head of state, nevertheless requires the National Assembly to exercise certain prerogatives effectively. Crucially, he can rely on the apparatus of state power itself. The presidential office also provides a significant symbolic resource that can be strategically mobilized.

Decisive factors shaping the power dynamic in the Senegal political crisis

While the stakes are undeniably high, the political landscape is periodically regulated by elections. These electoral processes are, in essence, corrective and pacifying mechanisms. Therefore, a robust consensus on the electoral calendar, a demand for transparency in the electoral process, and moderation in the exercise of both executive and legislative power will be crucial.

Public perceptions regarding the governance of Ousmane Sonko and that of Bassirou Diomaye Faye will prove decisive. The effectiveness of alternative public policies, the imperative for greater integrity in public life, and public expectations concerning accountability and “justice for the martyrs” (those who lost their lives during political demonstrations between 2021 and 2024) are all critical factors that will influence the evolving power balance between the two factions.

Elections and the party system typically serve as protective and regulatory mechanisms within democratic regimes. However, malfunctions stemming from a lack of transparency in electoral processes and an absence of moderation in the exercise of constitutional powers could potentially lead the Senegalese populace to resort to violent collective action.