One year after DRC-Rwanda peace deal, eastern DRC still mired in status quo violence

Fighting between Kinshasa forces and M23 rebels has intensified in recent months in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, against a backdrop of an Ebola outbreak. Yet it has been one year since a peace agreement was signed in Washington, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his Congolese and Rwandan counterparts present.

Eastern Congo has been devastated by three decades of conflict, and a fresh wave of violence has erupted since the M23 rebellion resurfaced in 2021. According to the United Nations, the armed group receives military backing from Rwanda.

On April 9, 2025, following a meeting between Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame, negotiations began in Doha between the Alliance fleuve Congo — the political wing of M23 — and the Congolese government, with Qatar serving as mediator.

Meanwhile, the United States spearheaded talks aimed at a peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda. After several months of negotiations, a deal was finally signed on June 27, 2025, between Kigali and Kinshasa, with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in attendance.

Since then, the region has faced a ‘status quo,’ notes Bob Kabamba, a political scientist at the University of Liège. ‘The rebellion’s territorial gains remain under its control, and we are seeing exchanges of fire and cease-fire violations from both the Congolese government and M23,’ he explains.

Despite the accord, M23 continues to recruit troops, the professor adds. ‘In this logic, the rebellion currently holds the upper hand. … It is this balance of power on the ground that will allow each side to impose its agenda in the future,’ he summarizes.