Niger three years after aligning with Russia: worsening insecurity persists

The military junta in Niger, which in July 2023 shifted its alliances toward Russia in pursuit of enhanced security, has yet to reverse the escalating threat posed by jihadist groups. Despite initial assurances that the strategic realignment would restore stability, coordinated assaults on defense positions continue to inflict heavy losses on national security forces.

A spate of coordinated strikes over a three-day period resulted in the deaths of at least 265 soldiers, marking one of the deadliest sequences of attacks in recent years. This grim milestone underscores the persistent vulnerabilities within the national defense apparatus.

The decision to deepen cooperation with Moscow—including the deployment of Russian military advisors—has coincided with the gradual withdrawal of Western partners. However, this transition has not translated into a sustained improvement in the security landscape. On the contrary, violence has intensified since 2023, with civilian casualties reaching unprecedented levels.

Data from ACLED indicates that in 2023 alone, Niger recorded approximately 225 violent incidents, a figure comparable to 2022, yet with a marked increase in fatalities. Civilian deaths surged by 27% during the same period, reflecting the growing brutality of the conflict.

ACAPS reports further deterioration in 2025, documenting over 700 civilian fatalities—a figure more than double the 2023 toll. The Tillabéri, Tahoua, and border regions with Mali and Burkina Faso remain hotspots, dominated by affiliates of the Islamic State and the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM).

Notable incidents include the loss of 60 soldiers in Tabatol in October 2023, the ambush that claimed 23 lives in Tillabéri in March 2024, and a relentless string of attacks on convoys, villages, and military outposts. These events have intensified scrutiny of the new security partnership, raising questions about its long-term viability.

As Niger marks three years since its strategic pivot, the jihadist threat shows no signs of abating. The resilience of militant groups continues to challenge the operational capacity of the national armed forces, leaving the nation grappling with an enduring and multifaceted security crisis.