Christian Moleka evaluates drc’s eastern conflict: military strategy under scrutiny

Political analyst Christian Moleka recently presented a comprehensive evaluation of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) military and diplomatic responses to the ongoing conflict in the nation’s East. His assessment, delivered during a public discussion, revealed a mixed outcome, particularly emphasizing the persistent challenges on the ground.

Moleka pointed out that despite a substantial allocation of 4.5 billion dollars for military programming between 2022 and 2025, the operational results have fallen short of expectations. The Congolese Armed Forces (FARDC) have struggled to regain strategic superiority over the M23/AFC rebel group since the pivotal fall of Bunagana in 2022, indicating a critical gap between investment and battlefield effectiveness.

On the diplomatic front, Moleka acknowledged several notable achievements for Kinshasa. These include the implementation of European sanctions against Rwanda, a discernible shift in Washington’s perspective on the conflict, and the unanimous adoption of a resolution by the United Nations Security Council. However, he underscored a troubling disconnect: these diplomatic victories have not translated into a tangible improvement in the security situation. Citing a report from the UN Group of Experts, Moleka highlighted that the M23 has expanded its occupied territory by an additional 35% since the Doha agreements, suggesting that diplomatic tools have yielded only “partial and temporary results.”

When pressed to identify the primary factor behind this unsatisfactory balance, Christian Moleka unequivocally pointed to the military dimension. He drew an analogy, describing the relationship between diplomacy and military effort as a two-person dance: “One cannot maintain a diplomatic stance without a robust military component to support it.” The analyst warned that the international gains secured by the DRC risk being undermined if they are not reinforced by a more favorable military balance of power on the ground.

Moleka concluded his analysis by framing the conflict as a protracted “war of attrition,” spanning three decades. In such a conflict, he asserted, “it is not intensity that matters, but the capacity to endure over time.” This enduring challenge, he stressed, applies equally to both Congolese diplomacy and its armed forces.