Can Nigeria’s security forces ever shut down the kidnapping economy in the north?

Two days. Two raids. At least 87 people seized, most of them women. That is the stark arithmetic behind the latest mass abductions to hit northern Nigeria — and it forces an uncomfortable question: can a military campaign that keeps announcing victories ever actually dismantle the kidnapping economy that has taken root across the region?

The two raids that sparked the question

The first strike came on a Saturday in Niger State, in the Mariga area. Gunmen swept into farmland where villagers were harvesting groundnuts and seized at least 47 farmers, many of them women. The attackers reportedly arrived on roughly 50 motorcycles before scattering in different directions. Local accounts suggest the captives may be held in the Ma’undu forest. At the time the information emerged, no ransom demand had reached the families.

The following day, a second assault hit neighbouring Zamfara State. Around 40 women were taken in Yargada, in the Gusau district. Nearby villages — Yargada, Maikogo and Magama Mairake among them — were also attacked, with homes and vehicles set alight. Residents say the true toll could be higher, with more than 50 women and children seized across several villages. Verifying those figures independently remains difficult given how isolated and insecure the area is.

Why these gangs are not the jihadists

Responsibility points to armed gangs known locally as “bandits.” They are distinct from jihadist outfits such as Boko Haram or the Islamic State in West Africa Province, though the lines between organised crime, banditry and insurgency can blur.

Across north-west and central Nigeria, these groups have for years run kidnap-for-ransom operations, rustled livestock and raided villages, using vast forest tracts as hideouts and staging grounds. Authorities struggle to control rural territory far from the big urban centres. In Zamfara, residents suggest Sunday’s attacks may have been retaliation for the killing of gang members by local militias — a claim that rests on local testimony and has not been independently established.

Kidnapping as a business model

Beyond the violence, abductions have become a revenue stream. Data from SBM Intelligence indicates that roughly 7.78 billion naira — about $5.8 million — was paid in ransoms between July 2025 and June 2026, more than triple the amount recorded in the previous period.

The same assessment puts the number of people abducted over that stretch at 7,825, a 66 percent year-on-year increase. Those figures convey the scale of the phenomenon, even if they draw on multiple sources and are not necessarily an exhaustive count.

What makes the situation more alarming is that the targets are not only farmers or travellers. Schoolchildren, families and entire village populations are regularly seized. In May 2026, more than 80 children went missing after attacks on schools in Borno and Oyo States.

The military’s answer, in numbers

President Bola Tinubu’s government says it has stepped up the fight against terrorist groups, bandits and kidnapping networks. The army is now running several operations at once. In the north-east, Operation Hadin Kai focuses on Boko Haram and ISWAP. In the north-west, Operation FANSAN YAMMA targets armed groups behind many of the attacks and abductions in states including Zamfara, Katsina, Kaduna and Sokoto. Other operations are underway in the centre of the country.

Officials point to a mix of ground operations, air strikes, intelligence work, arrests and rescue missions. The federal information ministry says troops have intensified action against bandit and kidnapper networks in Zamfara, Sokoto, Katsina, Niger, Kaduna and other areas.

The army’s own figures illustrate the scale of the offensive. For July and August 2026, Defence Headquarters claims 7,062 operations nationwide, with 1,487 terrorists and insurgents neutralised, 354 suspects arrested and 777 kidnapped people freed. It also says nearly a thousand firearms were recovered. These are figures supplied by the military and not all can be independently verified.

In the north-west, the army announced in late September that 14 kidnapped people had been rescued in an operation across Kaduna and Katsina States, alongside weapons seizures and the interception of suspected members of terrorist networks.

Results that have not stopped the abductions

Yet the steady stream of new kidnappings shows how deeply rooted the problem remains. Days before the latest raids, residents of Niger State protested to demand the release of hundreds of people taken in coordinated August attacks. Local estimates put the number of captives at nearly 700 — a figure the authorities have not confirmed.

The government’s challenge is therefore twofold: weaken the armed groups while preventing them from regenerating in hard-to-reach rural areas. Security forces must also go after the logistics networks, arms traffickers and financial channels that let criminal groups fund their operations.

The latest abductions in Niger and Zamfara States underscore a persistent reality: military pressure yields sporadic results — arrests, rescued hostages — but has not yet ended the kidnapping economy.

For rural communities, the threat is daily. Tending a field, heading to market or crossing a forest can still mean being taken hostage. And as long as armed groups can move, hide and demand ransoms, security operations will need to be paired with sustained intelligence work, community protection and territorial control.

The 87 abductions reported this weekend are less an isolated episode than another signal of how hard it is for Nigeria to restore lasting security in parts of the north.

By Claire Mvondo — Security and State Policy Expert