While Paris Saint-Germain, who clinched their fourteenth French championship title this past Wednesday, prepares for a derby match against Paris FC at Jean-Bouin, the concluding Ligue 1 fixture on Sunday, May 17, promises a multitude of twists and turns. Significant uncertainties persist for both the coveted European qualification positions and the critical relegation playoff spot. We delve into the crucial implications of this ultimate league day.

Lille controls its european destiny

Beyond the already confirmed Champions League spots for Paris Saint-Germain and RC Lens, three clubs are fiercely competing for the third and final direct qualification place in Europe’s premier club competition: Lille (3rd, 61 points), Lyon (4th, 60 points), and Rennes (5th, 59 points).

Lille’s footballers, maintaining an impressive unbeaten run since February 1st—a streak spanning thirteen matches—are uniquely positioned to secure this third-place finish. Should LOSC triumph over relegation-threatened Auxerre, their position will be unassailable. The northern club is guaranteed, at minimum, a fifth-place finish in Ligue 1, which secures a spot in the Europa League. Meanwhile, Lyon’s players are keenly watching for any misstep from Lille as they host Lens. A victory against Lens, who may have their focus divided by their upcoming Coupe de France final against Nice next week, could at least earn Lyon a Champions League preliminary round.

Marseille-Rennes: a high-stakes encounter

The pivotal clash at the Vélodrome between Olympique de Marseille and Rennes carries immense consequences for the losing side. Stade Rennais, by avoiding defeat, can secure a Europa League spot, or even improve their standing with a win. However, a loss could relegate them to the less prestigious and less lucrative Europa Conference League. Franck Haise’s squad has recently suffered two setbacks against direct European rivals (Lille, 2-1, and Lyon, 4-2). For Marseille’s coach Habib Beye, returning to the club that dismissed him in February, the pressure is even more intense.

Following a season marked by numerous sporting and off-field challenges, Marseille, who narrowly defeated Le Havre after a heavy loss to Nantes, must aim higher than their current 6th place. Nevertheless, a defeat could strip Marseille of everything: Monaco, sitting seventh just two points behind OM, could leapfrog the Olympiens and push them out of all European contention if they secure a victory against Strasbourg.

The relegation playoff battle: Le Havre, Auxerre, or Nice

With Metz and Nantes already relegated to Ligue 2 for the next season, three clubs are locked in a desperate struggle to avoid the single relegation playoff spot: Le Havre (14th, 32 points), Auxerre (15th, 31 points), and Nice (16th, 31 points).

Auxerre, despite a quick goal from Sofiane Diop (2-1) last week, managed to overcome Nice, earning themselves a temporary reprieve. However, their unfortunate final fixture sees them travel to Lille. Paradoxically, Nice, currently occupying the playoff position, appears to be in the strongest position to escape. The Nice players will host Metz, the league’s bottom team, who haven’t secured a win since November. Le Havre faces a challenging away fixture against Lorient (9th), a consistently formidable opponent. The Normans could find themselves in the playoff spot if both their rivals for survival secure victories, a consequence of their prolonged slide: Le Havre has not won a match since early February, when they defeated Strasbourg.