Geopolitical ambitions in the Sahel: Morocco and Algeria’s contrasting strategies

The nations comprising the Sahel band—a geographical expanse stretching from Mali to Chad—do not, at first glance, appear to be a burgeoning economic haven. Frankly, this region isn’t an investment magnet akin to Singapore. Key economic indicators for Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are notably low and present numerous challenges. In Mali, for instance, nearly 47% of its 25.9 million residents are under 15 years old, only 25% of its land is arable, and the country ranks 188th out of 193 in the UNDP’s Human Development Index. Approximately 45% of its population lives below the poverty line. Ouagadougou and Niamey exhibit similar statistics, with 40% and 60.5% of their populations, respectively, living in poverty (World Bank data). All three are landlocked nations, currently governed by military leaders who have formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), seemingly with tacit backing from the Kremlin, aiming to diminish remaining French influence. Their declared anti-French, anti-Western, and anti-democratic stance was intended to usher in prosperity, which they claimed Europeans had withheld, but this has not materialized. Nevertheless, two neighboring countries, Algeria and Morocco, are now extending their services to the region.

Morocco: an Atlantic gateway

Through the development of the Dakhla Atlantic Port, the Kingdom of Morocco is proposing an infrastructure project comparable to Tanger Med (a major European hub) in the Western Sahara. Construction is anticipated to conclude by 2028, with operations commencing the following year. The vision for this facility is to serve as a primary entry point for West Africa and a transit route to the Americas. Rabat’s leadership has hosted the three heads of the AES. From a geopolitical standpoint, the proposition is astute: a port connected by a potential railway line (not yet confirmed) would provide these three landlocked countries with vital ocean access, thereby boosting their economies. For Morocco, which faces geographical isolation due to its ongoing conflict with Algeria, this initiative serves multiple purposes. It demonstrates that its Western Sahara development plan can benefit the entire sub-region, and that economic growth can indirectly combat the jihadist groups destabilizing the Sahel by offering hope to its burgeoning youth population. The Sahel’s birth rate is rapidly increasing, with its population projected to double within a decade.

Algeria: a Trans-Saharan gas pipeline to Europe

After a period of strained relations with Niger, Algiers re-established cordial ties in mid-February with Abderrahmane Tiani, the head of Niger’s military government. Algeria proposed to commence construction of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline (TSGP) section “immediately after Ramadan.” This pipeline, originating in Nigeria, would now traverse Niger before reaching Algeria, ultimately supplying natural gas to Europe. Spanning 4,800 kilometers, the project would see Sonatrach, Algeria’s national hydrocarbon company, manage construction on Nigerien soil and train Nigerien personnel in its operation. This commitment to local capacity building offers a distinct advantage over some other foreign investors, such as China, who often do not prioritize training local populations in the management of their national resources.

two complementary yet clashing strategies

Discussions regarding Morocco’s autonomy plan for the Western Sahara began in Madrid and Washington on February 23rd and 24th. If this half-century-old conflict were to be resolved, Algeria and Morocco could jointly address the Sahel’s explosive security and demographic challenges. Such cooperation would prevent the AES states from exploiting the rivalries between these two regional powers.

Jihadism thrives on the combined scourges of poverty and authoritarian governance. Both Algiers and Rabat are independently seeking to disrupt this destructive cycle. Each capital offers its unique strengths: Algiers leverages its hydrocarbon resources and Sonatrach’s expertise, while Rabat emphasizes its ambitious infrastructure projects and its aspiration to become a vital hub connecting three continents (Africa, America, Europe). These two strategies, while inherently complementary, are unfortunately pitted against each other due to the enduring Sahara conflict. This is a missed opportunity.

*On September 26, 2025, Mali’s Prime Minister, Abdoulaye Maïga, demanded that Algeria “cease supporting international terrorism.” In response, Ahmed Attaf, Algeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, denounced this as a “rant of a ruffian.”