Les rebelles du M23 dans la ville de Bukavu

During a recent discussion, Joshua Z. Walker, an Associate Fellow within Chatham House’s Africa program and a Senior Fellow at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, shared a cautious yet troubling assessment. The conversation centered on potential outcomes should Washington’s patience wane regarding the protracted peace process between the Democratic Republic of Congo (RDC) and Rwanda.

While he refrained from making definitive predictions, stating, “I am not a prophet,” Walker outlined two primary scenarios. The first envisions a return to conditions preceding the significant American intervention in 2025, essentially a re-emergence of the dynamics observed before Washington’s heightened involvement in the issue. The second, and more concerning, scenario points to the simple continuation of the current deadlock.

This latter possibility deeply troubles the researcher. Walker articulated his concern, explaining, “I often say that even if there is no withdrawal of the M23, every day that passes that the M23 continues to occupy parts of eastern Congo, they become more entrenched.”

He emphasized that the mere passage of time acts as a compounding factor. “That’s the real fear, in fact: that we reach a situation where, simply by the passage of time, we end up with a reality where, de facto, a part of the RDC remains entirely outside government control.”