Côte d’Ivoire cocoa export outlook shaken by El Niño fears

The promising start to the Côte d’Ivoire cocoa export campaign, with nearly 1 million tonnes already contracted for the 2026-27 harvest, may face significant disruption due to the anticipated arrival of El Niño in July, industry insiders warn. The Conseil du Café et du Cacao (CCC), headquartered in Abidjan, has heightened concerns by increasing its premium on additional sales from zero to $135 per tonne above the futures price, according to sector sources.

Market resilience amid climate uncertainty

The surge in demand has driven Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s top cocoa producer, to contract between 950,000 and 1 million tonnes ahead of the new season kicking off on September 1st. However, traders are adopting a cautious approach despite the strong momentum. « We’ve already secured nearly 1 million tonnes for next year’s harvest, but we’re deliberately pacing our sales to mitigate risks, » disclosed a CCC representative.

Trading firms anticipate total exports of 1.1 to 1.2 million tonnes, citing the CCC’s upgraded premium as a reflection of market confidence. « The current market conditions allow the CCC to adopt a more assertive pricing strategy. They don’t need to lower premiums to secure deals, » noted a senior executive from a major cocoa trading firm.

El Niño’s potential impact on West Africa’s cocoa belt

Yet, the looming threat of El Niño—expected to bring prolonged dry spells—could severely disrupt cocoa production across West Africa’s key growing regions, including Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria. The prolonged absence of rainfall during critical growth phases may jeopardize crop yields for the 2027 harvest.

Industry players emphasize that while climate risks remain a concern, structural challenges within Côte d’Ivoire’s cocoa sector pose an even greater long-term threat. Many aging plantations suffer from declining productivity and recurring diseases, compounded by shortages of fertilizers and phytosanitary products. « El Niño isn’t the primary risk for cocoa production in Côte d’Ivoire. The real crisis stems from neglected farms and the skyrocketing cost of agricultural inputs, » stressed a leading exporter based in Abidjan.