Gabon’s rising public debt: a critical economic forecast for 2027

Gabon’s national debt is on a concerning upward trajectory, with projections indicating it will reach 94.3% of the gross domestic product (GDP) by 2027. This fiscal path, initiated during the transitional presidency and affirmed under Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema’s mandate, positions the nation at a critical threshold, significantly surpassing the 70% GDP convergence criterion set by the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC).

Financial partners express concern over debt trajectory

The accelerating pace of Gabon’s debt accumulation stands in stark contrast to the fiscal discipline commitments made to multilateral lenders. Despite substantial oil revenues and a surge in manganese prices—a commodity of which Gabon is a leading global producer—public finances are struggling to generate the necessary margins for debt reduction. The increasing burden of debt servicing consumes a growing portion of state revenues, thereby diminishing the capacity for vital investments in infrastructure and social services.

This dynamic unfolds as the International Monetary Fund (FMI) suspended its disbursements under the extended credit facility in 2024, citing concerns over financial governance discrepancies and expenditure overruns. Without an active program from the Bretton Woods institution, Libreville finds itself compelled to rely heavily on the regional public securities market and bilateral financing, both of which incur higher costs compared to concessional windows.

Public spending: a high-stakes bet for economic revival

Since assuming power in August 2023 following the overthrow of Ali Bongo Ondimba, General Oligui Nguema has strategically leveraged public procurement as a tool for political legitimation. There has been a notable increase in road infrastructure projects, the rehabilitation of social facilities, and housing programs, all presented with a proactive display intended to signal a clear break from previous management practices. However, this aggressive fiscal push has resulted in a widening primary deficit and an accumulation of domestic arrears owed to state suppliers.

Specifically, official budgetary documents indicate that Gabon’s public debt stock is set to climb from approximately 73% of GDP in 2024 to 94.3% by 2027. Such a rapid escalation over three fiscal years highlights a growing reliance on borrowing to fund the budget rather than on internal tax mobilization. Gabon’s tax pressure rate, historically low for a middle-income country, remains a recurring point of contention with technical partners.

A signal to investors: fiscal autonomy and credit ratings

For a sovereign issuer like Gabon, which participates in international markets through various Eurobonds, the evolution of its credit rating is a direct and critical concern. Rating agencies have already revised the country’s outlook multiple times, penalizing the uncertainty surrounding its budgetary trajectory and its capacity to refinance upcoming maturities. A sustained breach of the 90% of GDP threshold would expose Libreville to higher costs for its external debt and a shrinking pool of investors willing to subscribe to its issuances.

Within the sub-region, Gabon’s situation is closely monitored by CEMAC partners, who fear that an isolated fiscal slippage could destabilize the common foreign exchange reserves managed by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC). Regional monetary authorities have consistently reiterated the necessity of returning to sustainable ratios, especially as Chad, Congo-Brazzaville, and Cameroon also exhibit strained debt profiles.

The political credibility of the announced trajectory remains a pivotal question. The transition to a civilian constitutional framework, confirmed by the November 2024 referendum and the April 2025 presidential election, theoretically paves the way for the re-establishment of financial cooperation programs. Nevertheless, the Gabonese executive must complement its ambitious infrastructure plans with a credible fiscal consolidation strategy. This is an essential condition to prevent public debt from becoming a structural factor of vulnerability for the nation’s economy in the medium term. Official projections explicitly show the 94.3% of GDP threshold for 2027.