Morocco most vulnerable north african economy to hormuz oil shock, study finds

A new collective study examines the global fallout from the Iran–US conflict, revealing Morocco as the North African economy most exposed to a petroleum price surge linked to the Strait of Hormuz.

A recently released collective work titled “Hormuz and the Invisible Fractures: the Price of a Distant War” dives into the geopolitical, economic, and security consequences of the war between Iran, the United States, and Israel, focusing on tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The study gathers insights from international experts including Abdelhak Bassou, Ferid Belhaj, Ian Lesser, Hafez Ghanem, Hinh T. Dinh, and Rida Lyammouri.

The authors argue that the Hormuz crisis goes far beyond a regional conflict, exposing the vulnerabilities of a globalised economy heavily reliant on energy, trade, and logistics flows passing through this strategic maritime chokepoint, through which a significant share of the world’s oil, gas, fertilisers, and commercial traffic transits.

One chapter, authored by economist Hinh T. Dinh, models the impact of a 20% spike in oil prices on the economies of Morocco, Tunisia, and Egypt. Using an input-output economic model, the study concludes that Morocco is the most exposed country to the repercussions of an oil shock driven by the Hormuz crisis. The analysis highlights vulnerabilities across several sectors, notably agriculture, construction, transport, and other activities dependent on energy inputs.

In contrast, Egypt would partially benefit from higher prices thanks to state oil revenues, while Tunisia would show a broadly balanced outcome despite significant sectoral disparities.

+ A challenge to the international order +

Beyond economics, several contributors see the 2026 war as a turning point in the evolution of the global order. Ferid Belhaj notes that the conflict illustrates the growing fragmentation of the world system and the weakening of traditional cooperation and deterrence mechanisms. Marcus Vinicius de Freitas, meanwhile, views it as the emergence of a more multipolar world where conflicts are managed rather than resolved.

In another contribution, Ian Lesser examines the war’s fallout on transatlantic relations, arguing it has deepened divergences between the United States and several European countries over the use of force and crisis management.

The study also underscores risks to African energy security, Sahelian balances, and South American economies, while highlighting the growing role of strategic minerals in new global geopolitical dynamics.

According to the authors, this collective work aims to contribute to the debate on shifts in the international order and the strategies states must adopt in the face of crises capable of durably disrupting supply chains, energy markets, and global geopolitical equilibria.