Cameroun economic outlook 2026: Hilli Episeyo exit to impact growth

The Cameroonian economy is bracing for a significant shift as the countdown begins for the departure of the Hilli Episeyo, a floating liquefaction unit anchored off Kribi since 2018. Scheduled to leave national waters in July 2026, the vessel’s exit marks the end of its contract with Golar and the Société nationale des hydrocarbures (SNH). This development has been flagged by the National Economic and Financial Committee (CNEF) as a critical factor in the projected economic slowdown, alongside persistent geopolitical tensions and export sector weaknesses.

According to the CNEF’s detailed projections, Cameroon’s GDP growth is expected to decelerate to 3.2% in 2026 from 3.5% the previous year, then further to 3.1% in 2027. An alternative scenario in the same report suggests a slightly more optimistic outlook, with growth reaching 3.3% and 3.2% respectively. Regardless of the scenario, the extractive sector—particularly oil and gas—is projected to drag down growth by 0.4 percentage points in both years. Hydrocarbon-related activities are forecast to contract sharply, with the oil GDP plummeting by 16.1% in 2026 and 18% in 2027.

LNG industry already struggling before floating plant departure

The withdrawal of the Hilli Episeyo coincides with a deteriorating liquefied natural gas market. In 2025, LNG export revenues totaled 350.2 billion FCFA, down from 381 billion in 2024, 421 billion in 2023, and a peak of 622 billion in 2022. The annual decline stands at 8.1%. This downward trend persisted into early 2026: during the first quarter, total exports fell by 23.6% to 606.9 billion FCFA, with LNG exports dropping by 28.4% and crude oil by 14.4%. Despite the decline, LNG still accounted for 11.4% of export earnings in 2025.

The loss of the floating liquefaction unit strips the national economy of a key asset just as other export sectors falter. Over the same period, cocoa and derivative exports plunged by 37.7%, timber by 11.5%, aluminum by 53.7%, and raw rubber by 16.7%. The compounding decline across multiple sectors magnifies the expected impact of the LNG sector’s exit.

Current account deficit widens and fiscal tightening looms

Macroeconomic balances will bear the brunt of this transition. The CNEF projects the current account deficit to widen to 5.4% of GDP in 2026, then to 6.1% in 2027, up from an estimated 3.2% in 2025. The fiscal deficit is expected to follow a similar trajectory, reaching 1.7% and 2.1% of GDP respectively. These projections factor in a global trade slowdown, rising freight costs, and modest growth in public revenue.

The rise in global oil prices presents a classic policy dilemma for the government. Keeping pump prices stable would require increased fuel subsidies, placing immediate strain on the budget. Alternatively, raising retail fuel prices could reignite inflation and erode household purchasing power. While the CNEF does not take a definitive stance, it emphasizes the limited policy space available to navigate this challenge.

Yoyo-Yolanda and new exploration blocks: long-term hopes, short-term gaps

The SNH is advancing a diversification strategy to offset the loss of the Hilli Episeyo, with the Yoyo-Yolanda cross-border field—shared with Equatorial Guinea—serving as a potential anchor. Geological assessments estimate the field holds around 2.5 trillion cubic feet of gas, with an investment nearing $4 billion. However, progress hinges on finalizing technical and commercial agreements, securing financing, and constructing dedicated infrastructure. Delays in any of these areas could prolong the transition period.

In parallel, the state-owned company continues to award new exploration blocks in the Rio del Rey and Douala-Kribi-Campo basins. While negotiations for production-sharing contracts are underway, there is no guarantee of commercially viable discoveries or swift production ramp-up. The primary risk remains the timing gap: the longer the interval between the floating plant’s departure and the activation of new capacity, the deeper the negative impact on the extractive sector’s contribution to Cameroon’s economic growth.