Cameroon’s 2027 elections: an economist’s candid political forecast

A candid look at Cameroon’s political landscape ahead of the 2027 polls

With the dual elections of 2027 on the horizon, economist Serge Alain Godong offers an uncompromising interpretation of Cameroon’s political dynamics. Drawing upon the principles of “game theory” and the “prisoner’s dilemma,” Godong elucidates why, in his view, Maurice Kamto could not secure victory in 2018 and faces significant hurdles in the upcoming electoral cycle. In a comprehensive analysis, he characterizes the existing administration as “openly twilight” and describes an electorate that prioritizes the certainty of the familiar over the allure of uncertain promises.

“The overtly twilight nature of the four-decade-old regime compels a deeper examination of the forces of consolidation or change at play within Cameroon’s public sphere,” asserts Serge Alain Godong, an economist with credentials from Sciences-Po Paris, EHESS, and Paris X, in his insightful commentary.
For Godong, the year 2018 serves as a pivotal starting point. He recalls the gradual dissipation of astonishment following Maurice Kamto’s public declaration of having “scored a penalty.” Since that time, Paul Biya has been sworn into office, the MRC party has been effectively neutralized, and the majority of Cameroonian citizens have acknowledged the ongoing, tranquil tenure at the esteemed Etoudi presidential palace.

Godong constructs his argument on the foundation of “game theory,” positing two core assumptions: that human beings are fundamentally rational calculators, and that they require adequate information to safeguard their potential gains. From this perspective, an election transforms into a specific juncture where a particular individual presents a national community with a form of contract regarding its future.

However, Godong contends that Kamto is currently unable to offer a more credible contract than the one already in place. He suggests that the approximately 8.5 million Cameroonian voters expected to cast ballots next year would only support Maurice Kamto if they were absolutely convinced that he could better secure their interests in the coming years than Paul Biya.

The analyst identifies roughly 16 million current “beneficiaries” of the existing system, encompassing civil servants, employees in the formal private sector, liberal professionals, and their extended families. “It is estimated that these approximately 16 million Cameroonians, who constitute these beneficiaries, collectively share around 1500 billion CFA francs annually,” he explains. These individuals benefit from public sector salaries, government contracts, and major infrastructure projects. “These Cameroonians and their close associates are highly likely to vote for the RDPC and its candidate, fully aware of the implications.”

This leads to the “prisoner’s dilemma”: without coordinated information and concrete evidence of a superior gain model, voters tend to favor the status quo. “Cameroonians are therefore acutely aware that the current situation is rather deficient; yet, many among them distinctly prefer it to a presumably superior equilibrium position, about which they can state nothing with certainty.”

Godong’s analysis then delves into what he terms the “Bamiléké problem.” Citing Meredith Terretta, he highlights the distinction between “gung” (territory) and “lepue” (freedom), from which he posits an “economic and social Darwinism” attributed to individuals from the Grassfields region. Consequently, he notes: “Mr. Kamto is thus not perceived through the ordinary lens of a person offering an alternative political proposal […] but rather as a kind of malevolent avatar intent on executing a diabolical plan.”

The economist also describes a unique “syndrome,” distinct from Stockholm Syndrome, which he calls the “eating together” system. In this model, “everyone is connected to everyone else through minor illicit dealings; each person takes from their neighbor.” It’s a system where “the winners are simply those who ‘eat,’ and the losers are those who go hungry.”
Godong’s ultimate conclusion is that regardless of the victor, they “will have no choice but to act swiftly and decisively.” Swiftly to redistribute resources, and decisively to make the economy the primary “battleground.” Achieving a 6% growth rate, reducing the deficit, and combating corruption are all deemed “serious and urgent” priorities.

Ultimately, the analyst predicts that the political arena “will become progressively less complacent, less rent-seeking.” He further asserts that the nation requires “a strong and committed Paul Biya” to navigate the post-election era.